Global Diabetes Drugs Market
Global diabetes drugs market was valued at $33.5bn in 2015 and is forecast to grow at a strong 7.6% CAGR between 2015 and 2024, resulting in 2024 global sales of $69.8bn.
In early 2015, Boehringer Ingelheim and its partner Eli Lilly’s first-in-class SGLT-2/DPP-4 combination (Glyxambi) was approved by the FDA. AstraZeneca filed a similar combination (saxagliptin+dapagliflozin) but received a complete response letter in late 2015. SGLT-2 class offer an oral route of administration, strong HbA1c efficacy data antihypertensive action and reduction in body weight.
The biosimilar insulin space is going to heat up in next 5-10 years and both developed and emerging markets offer significant commercial opportunity. Boehringer Ingelheim /Lilly launched biosimilar Lantus in the EU with the U.S. launch expected by year end 2016. Merck has also filed a biosimilar insulin in both E.U. and the U.S. Mylan has partnered with the Indian biotech major Biocon for biosimilar insulin with a potential launch in 2018.
Optima Insights’ KOLs view the GLP-1 class as more efficacious than DPP-IV given improved HB1Ac control, superior body weight loss as opposed to DPP-IV which is weight neutral. Lilly’s Trulicity (dulaglutide) is the latest entrant in the space and offers a strong clinical profile and user-friendly device. Novo Nordisk is developing an oral GLP-1 agent ( semaglutide ) and if approved could be a game changer.
"Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, Sanofi, Merck, AstaZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim, J&J and Novartis are some of the key players in diabetes drugs market"
In 2015, Novo Nordisk, Sanofi, Merck, and Eli Lilly led the $33.5bn global diabetes drugs market. In 2024, AstraZeneca is projected to dominate the $69.8bn market, driven by strong product growth in GLP-1 and SGLT-2 classes.
Given CV benefit showed by GLP-1 and SGLT-2 in multiple pivotal trials, we expect a significant growth for both classes, likely at the expenses of DPP-4 which have failed to show a CV benefit.